E-15 Meets EPA Health Guidelines

BLOOMINGTON - Consumers are one step closer to expanded choices at the pump after the U.S. EPA approved industry-submitted research studies proving that the E-15 ethanol blend meets the Agency’s health effect requirements for new fuels brought to market, according to the Illinois Corn Growers Association (ICGA).

Insect Survival Enhanced by Mild Winter?

URBANA - Insect and crop pest survival could be greater than usual this spring following central Illinois’ mild winter, according to a University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign professor and assistant dean from the Department of Crop Sciences.

New Tools For Beginning, Disadvantaged Farmers

SPRINGFIELD - USDA’s Illinois Farm Service Agency (FSA) announced on February 3rd that a new rule has been established that expands loan opportunities for beginning and socially disadvantaged farmers and ranchers, while also creating a new Land Contract Guarantee Program (LCGP).

Schnitkey: Corn Likely Most Profitable in ‘12
BLOOMINGTON - Though indications show that corn should be more profitable to producers in 2012, many Illinois farmers are likely to forgo corn for soybeans after recent lackluster returns on continuous corn, said Gary Schnitkey, agricultural economist and farm management specialist with the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign’s Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics (ACES).

By Phyllis Picklesimer

URBANA - The corn market was surprised by the USDA’s final 2011 corn production estimate and the estimate of Dec. 1, 2011 corn stocks. The March 2012 futures price declined by 52 cents per bushel in the two sessions following the release of the reports, said Darrel Good, a University of Illinois agricultural economist.
At 9.642 billion bushels, Dec. 1 corn stocks were 425 million bushels smaller than those of a year ago and the smallest in five years, but they were about 240 million bushels larger than the average of the reported trade guesses, he said.
“Those guesses were in an extremely wide range of 500 million bushels. Three of the 15 analyst guesses reported by Dow Jones were 9.55 billion bushels or larger, so not everyone was surprised by the USDA estimate,” Good said.
Part of the surprise in the magnitude of Dec. 1 stocks came as a result of the average expectation of a smaller 2011 crop estimate. With the absence of any supporting evidence, it is not clear why, on average, analysts expected a 30-million-bushel reduction in the estimated size of the crop, he added.
“The USDA estimate was a very modest 48 million bushels (0.4 percent) larger than the November 2011 forecast. The 78-million-bushel difference between expected and actual production accounts for about one-third of the surprise in the stocks estimate. The remainder of the surprise is the result of incorrect expectations about the level of feed and residual use of corn during the first quarter of the 2011-12 marketing year,” Good said.
The market anticipated a high level of use to be revealed, perhaps partly to correct what was perceived as an underestimate of feed and residual use in the previous quarter. The surprisingly large estimate of Sept. 1, 2011, stocks implied a very low level of feed and residual use during the final quarter of the 2010-11 marketing year and for the entire marketing year, he said.
“Some believed that the low, and incorrect, estimate of feed and residual use last year had resulted in an unrealistically low forecast of use for the current year. It was thought that the Dec. 1 stocks estimate would ‘correct’ the past errors and show a high level of use during the September-December quarter, resulting in a larger projection of use for the year. That did not happen,” he said.
Instead, implied use during the quarter was consistent with the USDA forecast of 4.6 billion bushels so the forecast was not changed. Calculated feed and residual use of 1.838 billion bushels during the quarter represents 40 percent of the projected total for the year, he said.
“The percentage of total use during the first quarter last year was an unusually large 43.2 percent. In the previous 4 years, use during the first quarter averaged 39.3 percent of the marketing year total, in a range of 38.2 to 40.7 percent,” Good said.
According to Good, the seasonal pattern and the total implied feed and residual use of corn during the 2010-11 marketing year is still troublesome. Explanations for the low level of use center on the potential for overestimating the amount of corn used to produce ethanol, increased feeding of distiller’s grains, and/or an underestimation of the size of the 2010 crop.
“None of those explanations, however, addresses the inconsistent seasonal pattern of implied use. In addition, the implied sharp decline in feed and residual use of corn, all grains, and all feeds (including an estimate of distiller’s grain) per animal unit during the last half of the marketing year is without explanation,” he added.
With year-ending stocks of U.S. corn still expected to be a relatively low 6.7 percent of projected use, a lot of price uncertainty remains, he said.
“The immediate focus may be on the size of the South American corn crop and the implications for U.S. corn exports. The USDA lowered the projected size of the Argentine crop from 1.14 to 1.02 billion bushels in last week’s report. Recent and upcoming precipitation will help stabilize that crop, but the extent of damage may exceed that reflected in the current forecast,” he noted.
The forecast of the Brazilian crop was unchanged at 2.4 billion bushels. The USDA now expects U.S. corn exports to reach 1.65 billion bushels during the current marketing year, he said.
“Nineteen weeks into the year, export inspections have averaged 32.7 million bushels per week (adjusted for Census export estimates through November). Inspections need to average 30.9 million per week from now through August in order for the total to reach the projection,” he said.
A further reduction in the size of the South American crop, as occurred in the drought of 2008-09, could boost U.S. exports above the current projection, particularly if China continues the current pattern of small weekly purchases, he noted.
“Beyond the South American crop, corn prices will be influenced by 2012 U.S production prospects. In general, analysts are anticipating more acres, higher yields, and a much larger crop than in 2011,” Good said.
According to Good, such a large crop has not yet been priced into the market. Potential crop size will be gradually reflected from spring through harvest, beginning with the USDA’s February baseline projections and including the March 30 Prospective Plantings report.
“Oh, and don’t forget the March Grain Stocks report to be released on the same day,” he said.

Phyllis Picklesimer is with the University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences; Web: http://web.aces.uiuc.edu/news/

Illinois Corn Rebuts Yahoo News Article

BLOOMINGTON - With agriculture booming as other industries struggle during this economic recession, Illinois Corn has issued a strong rebuttal to a recent Yahoo! News article citing agriculture as the most “useless” college major.

Schock Issues Report Touting Ag Advocacy

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Congressman Aaron Schock (R-18th Ill.) of Peoria touted the work he has done to advance the interests of the agricultural sector in the recently issued “Schock Report” e-mailed to constituents and media. In the report, Schock reflected on his ag-related accomplishments as 2011 drew to close.

Summit: Weak 2012 Exports for Corn?

BLOOMINGTON - Small corn crops in 2011 and large grain crops in the rest of the world mean smaller export demand in 2012, according to industry experts who participated in December’s Illinois Farm Economics Summit, sponsored by FARMDOC. FARMDOC and Illinois Corn released a statement summarizing the summit’s conclusions on January 5th:

Ethanol Subsidy Sunset = More at the Pumps?
BLOOMINGTON - With the federal Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit (VEETC) set to expire on January 1, 2012, Illinois Corn Growers Association President Jeff Scates pondered the effect the repeal of the subsidy would have on pump prices.

By Jennifer Shike

For more than a quarter of a century, Jerald “Snook” Pataky’s research in the University of Illinois Sweet Corn Hybrid Disease Nursery has been helping growers make important decisions to increase their profitability.
His observations and trends from evaluating sweet corn hybrids for disease resistance are featured this month in Plant Disease.

Corn Caucus Tabs Gingrich As Ag-Friendly President
BLOOMINGTON - The Illinois Corn Growers Association (ICGA) contributed to a recent project sponsored by Iowa corn growers grading presidential candidates on issues important to corn farmers, known as the Corn Caucus Presidential Report Card. Serving as a reference guide to presidential candidates’ agricultural policies, the project solicits and grades agricultural policies via a questionnaire responded to by the candidates or by using candidates’ public policy information.

Biodiesel Credit Extended in Illinois
BLOOMINGTON - When the Illinois General Assembly passed a tax package providing millions in relief for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Sears to keep the companies from leaving the state, the package included a five-year extension of the state’s ethanol and biodiesel tax credits.

Kirk: Regulatory Excess Top Concern
CHICAGO - The reins of federal regulation affecting farm practices and other industries must be loosened, U.S. Senator Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) told farmers attending the Illinois Farm Bureau’s (IFB) policy “coffee” held recently in Chicago.

Renewable Fuel Tax Incentive Stalled
BLOOMINGTON - A budget bill amendment endorsed by the House Revenue Committee that would include extending the tax credit for biodiesel and ethanol has been stalled after the Senate failed to approve the tax break package last week.

Tremont Man Takes Corn Leadership Role
BLOOMINGTON - Tremont farmer Eric Kunzeman was among those re-elected to leadership positions within the Illinois Corn Growers Association during their annual re-organizational meeting held at the 2011 Illinois Commodity Conference on November 22.

Technology on Display at Peoria Farm Show
PEORIA - Thousands of Illinois farmers will attend the Greater Peoria Farm Show next week (Nov. 30- Dec.1), but what specific products and services will producers attending the largest indoor farm show in the Midwest be seeking to improve their operations?

EAB Following Highways, Camps Across State
ROCK ISLAND - According to entomologists studying and tracking the emerald ash borer (EAB) for the Illinois Department of Agriculture, it is likely inevitable that the voracious green beetle will someday soon be present in all 102 counties in the state.

Area Farmers Performing Fall Field Work
SPRINGFIELD - Harvest progress and post-harvest chores were aided by 5.7 days suitable for fieldwork during the final week of October, according to the October 31 Illinois Weather & Crops report issued by the USDA-NASS/Illinois Field Office.

Hog Farm Opens Near Utica
UTICA - It is not very often these days that you hear about a new grow-to-finish swine farm opening in central Illinois, and even more rare when it is supported by neighbors and regional officials. But that’s exactly what happened during an open house and ribbon-cutting ceremony on October 25th for John and Kate Hagenbush’s two new, 2,400 head swine barns near Utica in LaSalle County.

McLean County Man Named Acting DOA
SPRINGFIELD - Jim Larkin, an eight-year employee of the Illinois Department of Agriculture (IDOA) from Towanda in McLean County, was named acting director of agriculture by the Department on October 19. He replaces Tom Jennings, who retired the previous day.

FTA Approvals Praised by Illinois Ag
BLOOMINGTON and SPRINGFIELD - Last week’s Congressional passage of crucial free trade agreements (FTAs) with Colombia, Panama and South Korea drew praise across the board from Illinois agricultural groups.

Ethanol Emergency Response Seminar Slated
PEKIN - In a matter of impeccable timing, TRANSCAER (Transportation Community Awareness Emergency Response) is planning to bring to Pekin their national outreach effort that assists communities to prepare for and respond to hazardous material transportation incidents involving ethanol and anhydrous ammonia.

Soy, Corn Contracts Inked With Taiwan
BLOOMINGTON - The Taiwan Agricultural Trade Goodwill Mission visited Illinois recently to sign letters of intent to purchase soybeans and corn from Illinois farmers, the Illinois Soybean Association (ISA) and Illinois Corn Marketing Board (ICMB) announced last week.